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经济学人:美国经济:特朗普的昌盛能耐久吗?(02)

宣布工夫:2018-04-16内容泉源:VOA英语学习网

Yet the economy is not in immediate danger.

但是,经济体并非处于火烧眉毛的风险之中。

And the maturity of the business cycle cuts both ways.

并且,贸易周期的成熟把这两种状况都扫除了。

It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump's claims to be the author of American economic success.

特朗普有关他是美国经济乐成培养者的说法纯属胡言乱语。

But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises.

但是,经济体呈现某些受欢送的惊喜也是有能够的。

America is not the only economy doing well.

美国不是独一运转精良的经济体。

For about a year, a synchronised global expansion, taking in Europe, Asia and the Americas, has been under way.

一年来,发作在欧洲、亚洲和美洲的某种步伐分歧的环球扩张不断都在停止之中。

GDP growth in the euro zone, a region until recently synonymous with economic misery, is around 2.5%, despite slower population growth than America's.

在直到近来都是经济困境代名词的欧元区,GDP增长在2.5%左右,虽然其生齿增长慢于美国。

But America stands out because of where it is in the cycle.

但是,美国的一枝独秀是由于她正处于扩张周期中。

If it continues in 2018, this expansion will become the country's second-longest ever.

假使这一周期在2018年持续下去,这次的扩张将成为该国史上的第二永劫间扩张。

True, there are perils.

固然,危害是存在的。

As the business cycle matures, there is more chance that the economy will overheat, because of bottlenecks in the jobs market;

随着贸易周期走到头,由于失业市场的瓶颈,经济将会过热的能够性越来越大;

or that the central bank overtightens in order to prevent things from running too hot.

为避免局势过热,央行过分收紧的能够性也越来越大。

The longer the economy keeps growing, moreover, the more scope there is for financial imbalances, such as excess debt or frothy asset prices, to build up.

经济体越永劫间地坚持增长,过分债权或许是泡沫化的资产价钱等金融失衡逐渐累积的空间就越大。

Some warning signals are flashing.

一些警示信号正在闪耀。

The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed, as it tends to before recessions.

是非利率差曾经如其在危急之前经常好呈现的那样减少。

Yet the evidence for overheating is thin.

但是,过热的证据是缺少的。

Inflation has trended lower this year.

往年以来,通胀一起走低。

Wage growth has picked up a little, thankfully, but shows few signs of accelerating.

幸亏人为增长有所低头,但没有展现出几多减速的迹象。

Pay would have to increase by quite a lot more before rising inflation is a real worry.

人为领取不得不在日渐上升的通胀之前大幅增长是一个确切的担心。

来自:千亿国际文娱网页版_千亿国际文娱|www.qy449.com 文章地点: http://www.tingvoa.com/html/20180416/550711.html